Preflight Brief: When Good Decisions Go Sideways

Welcome to the Safety Section of the Flying Clubs Newsletter, Club Connector!              

Every month we provide resources for flying club safety officers to keep their clubs informed and safe. You can find this month’s safety article and the full archive, here: https://youcanfly.aopa.org/flying-clubs/flying-club-newsletter/safety               

So, let’s get on with this month’s safety topic!               

Background:         

Controlled Flight into Terrain (CFIT) accidents continue to be a leading cause of fatal outcomes in general aviation, even though the aircraft and pilot are often fully capable right up to the moment of impact. In many cases, these accidents appear obvious after the fact, prompting questions about why a pilot did not recognize the danger sooner. This reaction is largely driven by hindsight bias—the tendency to view past events as more predictable once the outcome is known. Hindsight bias can distort how accidents are interpreted, oversimplify complex decision environments, and create a false sense of immunity among other pilots. Understanding how this bias shapes our perception of CFIT accidents is essential for learning the right lessons and improving real‑world decision‑making before options disappear.

Learning points:          

• Hindsight bias makes past events feel more predictable than they were in real time. 
  Once we know how a situation ends, it is easy to believe the outcome was obvious all along, even though it was not clear to the pilot at the time.

• CFIT accidents usually involve reasonable decisions made in challenging conditions. 
  The choices that contributed to the accident often made sense given the information and pressures present at the moment.

• Knowing the outcome changes how we interpret earlier cues and information. 
  Weather reports, visual references, or navigation data can seem more significant after the fact than they appeared in flight.

• What looks obvious afterward may have been ambiguous or insignificant at the time. 
  Subtle cues are easy to overlook when nothing yet feels urgent or abnormal.

• “I would never do that” prevents honest learning and self‑assessment. 
  This mindset creates distance from the accident instead of helping pilots see how similar traps could affect them.

• Pilots often do not feel rushed until options are already limited. 
  CFIT situations frequently develop gradually, delaying the sense that immediate action is needed.

• Gradual deterioration is harder to recognize than sudden failure. 
  Conditions that worsen slowly allow adaptation instead of alarm, which can normalize increasing risk.

• Accident reviews should focus on decision context, not just the end result. 
  Understanding what the pilot knew and perceived is more valuable than judging the final outcome.

• Overconfidence grows when accidents are seen as simple or obvious. 
  Believing accidents were easy to avoid can reduce vigilance and personal risk awareness.

• Early, conservative action is the most effective CFIT prevention tool. 
  Decisions made while margins still exist such as changing course, climbing, or diverting matter far more than perfect execution later.

Other Safety Resources:               

Here is a reminder of just some of the safety resources available to all pilots:               

FAASTeam:               

faasafety.gov               

The FAASTeam website is the portal to a vast array of courses, videos, links, and much more.  Remember that WINGS not only encompasses knowledge activities but also flight activities.  Use the search options to narrow down to say, flight activities for a basic phase of WINGS, and you’ll be able to find a syllabus and often a worksheet for various flight activities.  Use WINGS to keep you proficient and think of the flight activities as a progressive flight review—earnt over 12-months, rather than at the end of 24-months.               

Wait…you don’t do WINGS?               

That’s a big shame—you are missing out on a free pilot proficiency program that will help you enjoy your flying even more, allow you to earn a flight review every 12 months just by flying, and may provide insurance discounts.               

The FAASTeam WINGS pilot proficiency program is the best way for general aviation pilots to ensure they are competent, confident, and safe in their flight operations.   Oh, and being perpetually proficient will save you money in the long run.                 

If you are interested in using the FAASTeam WINGS program for your personal flying or with your flying club, create an account on the FAASTeam website, http://www.faasafety.gov, and explore the collection of courses and flight activities.  Also, feel free to contact me (Jason Levine, WINGS Representative), and I’d be pleased to walk you through the program.  More on “WINGS for Clubs” can be found here in Flying Clubs Radio Episode 8 and the May 2020 Question of the Month.                 

Other FAA Resources:               

Don’t forget to regularly revisit these FAA safety gems, as new material is frequently added:               

Pilot Minute               

57 Seconds to Safer Flying               

FAA Safety Briefing Magazine               

From the Flight Deck                  

AOPA Air Safety Institute:               

https://www.aopa.org/training-and-safety/air-safety-institute               

AOPA’s Air Safety Institute (ASI), which by the way is funded by the AOPA Foundation just like the Flying Clubs Initiative, is packed with exceptional content, including exceptional videos, podcasts, accident analysis, online courses, recorded webinars and more.  Completing ASI activities may also earn WINGS credits.  Of particular interest to flying club safety officers is the updated Safety to Go section.  There, you can download a selection of topics, each coming with PowerPoint slides and speaker’s notes!